D. Together

Combined effect on the price

Whose transactions moved each pool's price — to the peak, since the peak, and over its whole life.

Published
Ledger index
107030551

Contents

Accounts marked “flow-connected to” an activation tree are those the CULT and OBEY token flow reaches from it at its widest flow threshold, 10 CULT paid in total one way; the token-flow article sets out how it is followed, and the groups at every other threshold. Accounts flow-connected to both activation trees: 17 at 10 CULT, 0 at 30 CULT, 0 at 50 CULT. Being flow-connected does not make an account the activation tree's.

Every change in a pool's price can be put against the transaction that caused it, and on a logarithmic scale those changes add up exactly to the whole move. This article adds them up by whose transactions they were: Pheanor's activation tree, Hodler's activation tree, the accounts flow-connected to each or both, the account that received the whole issue, and everyone else — from the pool's opening to its peak, from the peak to now, and over its whole life. In each, the shares add up to 100%, and a share below zero is a push the other way.

The CULT/XRP pool

The pool opened at 0.102649 XRP per CULT, peaked at 290.9880 on 2026-06-17 14:50:31 UTC (×2,834.790), and stands at 148.9931 now (×0.512 since the peak).

Table 1. Whose transactions moved the CULT/XRP pool's price, in each stretch.

whose transactions share of the rise to the peak multiplied it by share of the fall since the peak multiplied it by share of the whole life multiplied it by
Pheanor's activation tree 51.07% ×57.968 15.38% ×0.902 54.35% ×52.297
flow-connected to Pheanor's activation tree 19.55% ×4.731 80.68% ×0.583 13.93% ×2.757
everyone else 18.28% ×4.275 -2.81% ×1.019 20.21% ×4.356
Hodler's activation tree 17.09% ×3.889 -0.02% ×1.000 18.66% ×3.890
flow-connected to Hodler's activation tree 0.48% ×1.039 0.00% ×1.000 0.52% ×1.039
flow-connected to both activation trees 0.42% ×1.034 6.77% ×0.956 -0.16% ×0.989
the account that received the whole CULT issue -6.88% ×0.579 0.00% ×1.000 -7.52% ×0.579
all transactions 100.00% ×2,834.790 100.00% ×0.512 100.00% ×1,451.484

every row: download price-by-whose.csv.

Table 2. How the activation trees, the flow-connected accounts and the accounts that received an issue moved the CULT/XRP pool's price, by kind of transaction.

whose kind of transaction transactions share of the rise to the peak share of the whole life multiplied the price by
Pheanor's activation tree single-asset pool withdrawal (CULT only) 1,073 35.13% 45.06% ×26.585
flow-connected to both activation trees single-asset pool withdrawal (CULT only) 352 19.14% 21.15% ×4.665
Pheanor's activation tree swap or payment through the pool 2,346 19.37% 21.09% ×4.643
flow-connected to both activation trees swap or payment through the pool 326 -18.21% -20.76% ×0.221
Pheanor's activation tree single-asset pool deposit (CULT only) 178 -8.02% -16.81% ×0.294
Hodler's activation tree swap or payment through the pool 1,014 11.48% 12.54% ×2.491
the account that received the whole CULT issue swap or payment through the pool 6 -8.31% -9.08% ×0.516
flow-connected to both activation trees single-asset pool deposit (XRP only) 314 7.49% 8.18% ×1.813
flow-connected to Pheanor's activation tree swap or payment through the pool 5,244 14.13% 8.03% ×1.794
Hodler's activation tree single-asset pool withdrawal (CULT only) 119 6.51% 7.11% ×1.678
flow-connected to both activation trees offer that traded with the pool 6 -4.78% -5.22% ×0.684
Pheanor's activation tree single-asset pool deposit (XRP only) 385 4.72% 5.16% ×1.456
flow-connected to Pheanor's activation tree single-asset pool deposit (XRP only) 99 4.12% 4.50% ×1.388
flow-connected to Pheanor's activation tree single-asset pool withdrawal (CULT only) 100 3.48% 3.80% ×1.319
flow-connected to both activation trees single-asset pool deposit (CULT only) 19 -2.86% -3.12% ×0.797
Hodler's activation tree single-asset pool deposit (CULT only) 12 -1.85% -2.02% ×0.863
the account that received the whole CULT issue single-asset pool withdrawal (CULT only) 6 1.81% 1.98% ×1.155
flow-connected to Pheanor's activation tree offer that traded with the pool 37 -1.19% -1.31% ×0.909
Hodler's activation tree single-asset pool deposit (XRP only) 27 0.97% 1.06% ×1.080
flow-connected to Hodler's activation tree swap or payment through the pool 955 0.79% 0.87% ×1.065
flow-connected to Pheanor's activation tree single-asset pool withdrawal (XRP only) 17 -0.62% -0.67% ×0.952
flow-connected to Pheanor's activation tree single-asset pool deposit (CULT only) 5 -0.38% -0.41% ×0.970
flow-connected to both activation trees single-asset pool withdrawal (XRP only) 12 -0.35% -0.38% ×0.973
the account that received the whole CULT issue single-asset pool deposit (CULT only) 8 -0.22% -0.24% ×0.982
flow-connected to Hodler's activation tree offer that traded with the pool 12 -0.22% -0.24% ×0.983
the account that received the whole CULT issue single-asset pool withdrawal (XRP only) 3 -0.21% -0.23% ×0.984
flow-connected to Hodler's activation tree single-asset pool deposit (CULT only) 2 -0.19% -0.21% ×0.985
Pheanor's activation tree offer that traded with the pool 1 -0.13% -0.14% ×0.990
flow-connected to Hodler's activation tree single-asset pool withdrawal (CULT only) 7 0.09% 0.10% ×1.007
the account that received the whole CULT issue single-asset pool deposit (XRP only) 8 0.05% 0.06% ×1.004
Hodler's activation tree offer that traded with the pool 2 -0.02% -0.02% ×0.998
flow-connected to Hodler's activation tree single-asset pool deposit (XRP only) 1 0.00% 0.00% ×1.000
Pheanor's activation tree single-asset pool withdrawal (XRP only) 1 0.00% 0.00% ×1.000
Pheanor's activation tree two-asset pool deposit 622 0.00% 0.00% ×1.000

every row: download price-by-whose-and-kind.csv.

Table 3. Single-asset moves of CULT in the CULT/XRP pool — taking CULT alone out, which raises the price, and putting it alone in, which lowers it — from the named wallets alone, through each activation tree, to every scenario of which connected accounts are counted with them. An activation tree's “reached from it” rows add the accounts the token flow reaches from that activation tree, those reached from both activation trees included; each connection-profile row adds a band to the rows above it; each flow row counts every account flow-connected at that threshold. The net is what the two kinds of move multiplied to together.

whose withdrawals CULT taken out withdrawals multiplied the price by deposits CULT put in deposits multiplied the price by net: the price multiplied by net share of the rise to the peak net share of the whole move
Pheanor's named wallets 1,041 2,689.600182 ×25.593 178 505.690000 ×0.294 ×7.527 26.63% 27.73%
Hodler's named wallet 84 523.192608 ×1.526 8 69.090000 ×0.892 ×1.362 3.89% 4.24%
both men's named wallets 1,125 3,212.792790 ×39.066 186 574.780000 ×0.262 ×10.252 30.52% 31.97%
Pheanor's activation tree 1,073 2,714.191546 ×26.585 178 505.690000 ×0.294 ×7.819 27.11% 28.25%
Hodler's activation tree 119 716.895324 ×1.678 12 106.090000 ×0.863 ×1.448 4.66% 5.09%
both activation trees 1,192 3,431.086871 ×44.619 190 611.780000 ×0.254 ×11.324 31.77% 33.34%
Pheanor's activation tree + reached from it at 50 CULT 1,089 2,783.881597 ×28.204 179 526.450760 ×0.290 ×8.184 27.68% 28.87%
Hodler's activation tree + reached from it at 50 CULT 443 3,033.392454 ×6.835 32 398.199359 ×0.684 ×4.672 19.16% 21.17%
Pheanor's activation tree + reached from it at 30 CULT 1,092 2,797.024106 ×28.540 180 527.450760 ×0.290 ×8.274 27.82% 29.02%
Hodler's activation tree + reached from it at 30 CULT 443 3,033.392454 ×6.835 32 398.199359 ×0.684 ×4.672 19.16% 21.17%
Pheanor's activation tree + reached from it at 10 CULT 1,525 5,375.572471 ×163.544 202 827.514639 ×0.227 ×37.183 46.49% 49.67%
Hodler's activation tree + reached from it at 10 CULT 478 3,142.676462 ×7.885 33 407.699359 ×0.677 ×5.340 20.84% 23.01%
both activation trees + strong connection profiles 1,311 3,742.180787 ×61.067 194 640.780000 ×0.247 ×15.091 35.38% 37.28%
both activation trees + token flow only connection profiles 1,616 6,057.060869 ×257.875 216 940.161779 ×0.195 ×50.301 50.29% 53.82%
both activation trees + token flow on one payment connection profiles 1,654 6,161.814189 ×285.300 217 949.661779 ×0.193 ×55.143 51.45% 55.08%
both activation trees + one other kind only connection profiles 1,662 6,168.205671 ×288.834 220 952.651895 ×0.193 ×55.605 51.55% 55.19%
both activation trees + flow-connected at 50 CULT 1,532 5,817.274052 ×192.770 211 924.650119 ×0.198 ×38.232 46.84% 50.05%
both activation trees + flow-connected at 30 CULT 1,535 5,830.416561 ×195.063 212 925.650119 ×0.198 ×38.652 46.98% 50.20%
both activation trees + flow-connected at 10 CULT 1,651 6,104.548932 ×276.415 216 949.604639 ×0.193 ×53.428 51.05% 54.64%

every row: download single-asset-scenarios.csv.

Table 4. What the activation trees' CULT would fetch sold into the pool now, by the network's own formula with its 1.0% fee — each row on its own, as if nobody else sold first.

group CULT marked at the pool price (XRP) the pool would pay (XRP) share of the mark
Pheanor's activation tree 2,054.247521 306,068.80 52,691.48 17.22%
Hodler's activation tree 553.479992 82,464.73 35,807.59 43.42%
both activation trees 2,607.727513 388,533.53 54,710.77 14.08%

every row: download trees-would-fetch.csv.

The OBEY/XRP pool

The pool opened at 6.9000 XRP per OBEY, peaked at 32,842.2531 on 2024-11-16 13:42:10 UTC (×4,759.747), and stands at 2,860.6916 now (×0.087 since the peak).

Table 5. Whose transactions moved the OBEY/XRP pool's price, in each stretch.

whose transactions share of the rise to the peak multiplied it by share of the fall since the peak multiplied it by share of the whole life multiplied it by
everyone else 59.09% ×148.937 110.89% ×0.067 38.11% ×9.946
Hodler's activation tree 22.34% ×6.631 36.51% ×0.410 16.60% ×2.720
flow-connected to both activation trees 18.10% ×4.631 88.39% ×0.116 -10.36% ×0.535
Pheanor's activation tree 0.47% ×1.041 -104.44% ×12.794 42.95% ×13.314
flow-connected to Hodler's activation tree 0.00% ×1.000 0.00% ×1.000 0.00% ×1.000
flow-connected to Pheanor's activation tree 0.00% ×1.000 -31.36% ×2.150 12.70% ×2.150
all transactions 100.00% ×4,759.747 100.00% ×0.087 100.00% ×414.593

every row: download obey-price-by-whose.csv.

Table 6. How the activation trees, the flow-connected accounts and the accounts that received an issue moved the OBEY/XRP pool's price, by kind of transaction.

whose kind of transaction transactions share of the rise to the peak share of the whole life multiplied the price by
flow-connected to both activation trees swap or payment through the pool 280 0.33% -67.48% ×0.017
flow-connected to both activation trees single-asset pool deposit (XRP only) 144 13.47% 29.57% ×5.942
flow-connected to both activation trees single-asset pool withdrawal (OBEY only) 42 4.49% 28.24% ×5.486
Pheanor's activation tree single-asset pool withdrawal (OBEY only) 92 0.00% 26.22% ×4.858
Hodler's activation tree single-asset pool withdrawal (OBEY only) 33 6.19% 14.19% ×2.352
Hodler's activation tree single-asset pool deposit (XRP only) 49 8.03% 13.92% ×2.315
flow-connected to Pheanor's activation tree swap or payment through the pool 412 0.00% 11.41% ×1.989
Hodler's activation tree swap or payment through the pool 162 8.14% -10.57% ×0.529
Pheanor's activation tree swap or payment through the pool 449 0.00% 9.95% ×1.821
Pheanor's activation tree single-asset pool deposit (XRP only) 112 0.47% 7.91% ×1.611
flow-connected to Pheanor's activation tree single-asset pool deposit (XRP only) 57 0.00% 5.12% ×1.362
flow-connected to Pheanor's activation tree single-asset pool deposit (OBEY only) 3 0.00% -2.91% ×0.839
flow-connected to Pheanor's activation tree single-asset pool withdrawal (OBEY only) 22 0.00% 2.64% ×1.172
flow-connected to Pheanor's activation tree offer that traded with the pool 17 0.00% -2.45% ×0.863
flow-connected to Pheanor's activation tree single-asset pool withdrawal (XRP only) 9 0.00% -1.11% ×0.935
Pheanor's activation tree single-asset pool deposit (OBEY only) 3 0.00% -0.94% ×0.945
Hodler's activation tree single-asset pool deposit (OBEY only) 3 0.00% -0.91% ×0.946
flow-connected to both activation trees single-asset pool withdrawal (XRP only) 5 0.00% -0.47% ×0.972
flow-connected to both activation trees single-asset pool deposit (OBEY only) 3 -0.18% -0.27% ×0.984
Pheanor's activation tree single-asset pool withdrawal (XRP only) 1 0.00% -0.19% ×0.988
flow-connected to both activation trees offer that traded with the pool 5 0.00% 0.06% ×1.003
Hodler's activation tree offer that traded with the pool 1 -0.02% -0.03% ×0.998
flow-connected to Hodler's activation tree swap or payment through the pool 11 0.00% 0.00% ×1.000
flow-connected to Pheanor's activation tree two-asset pool deposit 160 0.00% 0.00% ×1.000
Pheanor's activation tree two-asset pool deposit 128 0.00% 0.00% ×1.000
flow-connected to both activation trees two-asset pool withdrawal 24 0.00% 0.00% ×1.000
Pheanor's activation tree two-asset pool withdrawal 23 0.00% 0.00% ×1.000

every row: download obey-price-by-whose-and-kind.csv.

Table 7. Single-asset moves of OBEY in the OBEY/XRP pool — taking OBEY alone out, which raises the price, and putting it alone in, which lowers it — from the named wallets alone, through each activation tree, to every scenario of which connected accounts are counted with them. An activation tree's “reached from it” rows add the accounts the token flow reaches from that activation tree, those reached from both activation trees included; each connection-profile row adds a band to the rows above it; each flow row counts every account flow-connected at that threshold. The net is what the two kinds of move multiplied to together.

whose withdrawals OBEY taken out withdrawals multiplied the price by deposits OBEY put in deposits multiplied the price by net: the price multiplied by net share of the rise to the peak net share of the whole move
Pheanor's named wallets 92 2.840724 ×4.858 3 0.082880 ×0.945 ×4.591 0.00% 25.29%
Hodler's named wallet 21 0.239805 ×1.786 3 0.100000 ×0.946 ×1.690 5.67% 8.71%
both men's named wallets 113 3.080529 ×8.675 6 0.182880 ×0.894 ×7.759 5.67% 33.99%
Pheanor's activation tree 92 2.840724 ×4.858 3 0.082880 ×0.945 ×4.591 0.00% 25.29%
Hodler's activation tree 33 0.328615 ×2.352 3 0.100000 ×0.946 ×2.226 6.19% 13.28%
both activation trees 125 3.169339 ×11.426 6 0.182880 ×0.894 ×10.219 6.19% 38.56%
Pheanor's activation tree + reached from it at 50 CULT 92 2.840724 ×4.858 3 0.082880 ×0.945 ×4.591 0.00% 25.29%
Hodler's activation tree + reached from it at 50 CULT 75 1.138431 ×12.902 6 0.106660 ×0.931 ×12.014 10.50% 41.25%
Pheanor's activation tree + reached from it at 30 CULT 92 2.840724 ×4.858 5 0.092880 ×0.940 ×4.567 0.00% 25.20%
Hodler's activation tree + reached from it at 30 CULT 75 1.138431 ×12.902 6 0.106660 ×0.931 ×12.014 10.50% 41.25%
Pheanor's activation tree + reached from it at 10 CULT 156 3.998648 ×31.246 9 0.367700 ×0.780 ×24.375 4.31% 52.98%
Hodler's activation tree + reached from it at 10 CULT 75 1.138431 ×12.902 6 0.106660 ×0.931 ×12.014 10.50% 41.25%
both activation trees + strong connection profiles 130 3.252208 ×12.013 7 0.451040 ×0.754 ×9.062 6.19% 36.57%
both activation trees + token flow only connection profiles 187 4.089498 ×67.494 12 0.467700 ×0.738 ×49.832 10.50% 64.85%
both activation trees + token flow on one payment connection profiles 192 4.343150 ×74.135 12 0.467700 ×0.738 ×54.735 10.50% 66.41%
both activation trees + one other kind only connection profiles 192 4.343150 ×74.135 13 0.469815 ×0.737 ×54.674 10.50% 66.39%
both activation trees + flow-connected at 50 CULT 167 3.979155 ×62.679 9 0.189540 ×0.880 ×55.151 10.50% 66.53%
both activation trees + flow-connected at 30 CULT 167 3.979155 ×62.679 11 0.199540 ×0.875 ×54.867 10.50% 66.45%
both activation trees + flow-connected at 10 CULT 189 4.327263 ×73.489 12 0.467700 ×0.738 ×54.258 10.50% 66.26%

every row: download obey-single-asset-scenarios.csv.

Table 8. What the activation trees' OBEY would fetch sold into the pool now, by the network's own formula with its 1.0% fee — each row on its own, as if nobody else sold first.

group OBEY marked at the pool price (XRP) the pool would pay (XRP) share of the mark
Pheanor's activation tree 0.963941 2,757.54 1,878.67 68.13%
Hodler's activation tree 0.000000472636 <0.01 <0.01 99.00%
both activation trees 0.963941 2,757.54 1,878.68 68.13%

every row: download obey-trees-would-fetch.csv.


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