D. Together
Combined effect on the price
Whose transactions moved each pool's price — to the peak, since the peak, and over its whole life.
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Contents
Accounts marked “flow-connected to” an activation tree are those the CULT and OBEY token flow reaches from it at its widest flow threshold, 10 CULT paid in total one way; the token-flow article sets out how it is followed, and the groups at every other threshold. Accounts flow-connected to both activation trees: 17 at 10 CULT, 0 at 30 CULT, 0 at 50 CULT. Being flow-connected does not make an account the activation tree's.
Every change in a pool's price can be put against the transaction that caused it, and on a logarithmic scale those changes add up exactly to the whole move. This article adds them up by whose transactions they were: Pheanor's activation tree, Hodler's activation tree, the accounts flow-connected to each or both, the account that received the whole issue, and everyone else — from the pool's opening to its peak, from the peak to now, and over its whole life. In each, the shares add up to 100%, and a share below zero is a push the other way.
The CULT/XRP pool
The pool opened at 0.102649 XRP per CULT, peaked at 290.9880 on 2026-06-17 14:50:31 UTC (×2,834.790), and stands at 148.9931 now (×0.512 since the peak).
Table 1. Whose transactions moved the CULT/XRP pool's price, in each stretch.
| whose transactions | share of the rise to the peak | multiplied it by | share of the fall since the peak | multiplied it by | share of the whole life | multiplied it by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pheanor's activation tree | 51.07% | ×57.968 | 15.38% | ×0.902 | 54.35% | ×52.297 |
| flow-connected to Pheanor's activation tree | 19.55% | ×4.731 | 80.68% | ×0.583 | 13.93% | ×2.757 |
| everyone else | 18.28% | ×4.275 | -2.81% | ×1.019 | 20.21% | ×4.356 |
| Hodler's activation tree | 17.09% | ×3.889 | -0.02% | ×1.000 | 18.66% | ×3.890 |
| flow-connected to Hodler's activation tree | 0.48% | ×1.039 | 0.00% | ×1.000 | 0.52% | ×1.039 |
| flow-connected to both activation trees | 0.42% | ×1.034 | 6.77% | ×0.956 | -0.16% | ×0.989 |
| the account that received the whole CULT issue | -6.88% | ×0.579 | 0.00% | ×1.000 | -7.52% | ×0.579 |
| all transactions | 100.00% | ×2,834.790 | 100.00% | ×0.512 | 100.00% | ×1,451.484 |
every row: download price-by-whose.csv.
Table 2. How the activation trees, the flow-connected accounts and the accounts that received an issue moved the CULT/XRP pool's price, by kind of transaction.
| whose | kind of transaction | transactions | share of the rise to the peak | share of the whole life | multiplied the price by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pheanor's activation tree | single-asset pool withdrawal (CULT only) | 1,073 | 35.13% | 45.06% | ×26.585 |
| flow-connected to both activation trees | single-asset pool withdrawal (CULT only) | 352 | 19.14% | 21.15% | ×4.665 |
| Pheanor's activation tree | swap or payment through the pool | 2,346 | 19.37% | 21.09% | ×4.643 |
| flow-connected to both activation trees | swap or payment through the pool | 326 | -18.21% | -20.76% | ×0.221 |
| Pheanor's activation tree | single-asset pool deposit (CULT only) | 178 | -8.02% | -16.81% | ×0.294 |
| Hodler's activation tree | swap or payment through the pool | 1,014 | 11.48% | 12.54% | ×2.491 |
| the account that received the whole CULT issue | swap or payment through the pool | 6 | -8.31% | -9.08% | ×0.516 |
| flow-connected to both activation trees | single-asset pool deposit (XRP only) | 314 | 7.49% | 8.18% | ×1.813 |
| flow-connected to Pheanor's activation tree | swap or payment through the pool | 5,244 | 14.13% | 8.03% | ×1.794 |
| Hodler's activation tree | single-asset pool withdrawal (CULT only) | 119 | 6.51% | 7.11% | ×1.678 |
| flow-connected to both activation trees | offer that traded with the pool | 6 | -4.78% | -5.22% | ×0.684 |
| Pheanor's activation tree | single-asset pool deposit (XRP only) | 385 | 4.72% | 5.16% | ×1.456 |
| flow-connected to Pheanor's activation tree | single-asset pool deposit (XRP only) | 99 | 4.12% | 4.50% | ×1.388 |
| flow-connected to Pheanor's activation tree | single-asset pool withdrawal (CULT only) | 100 | 3.48% | 3.80% | ×1.319 |
| flow-connected to both activation trees | single-asset pool deposit (CULT only) | 19 | -2.86% | -3.12% | ×0.797 |
| Hodler's activation tree | single-asset pool deposit (CULT only) | 12 | -1.85% | -2.02% | ×0.863 |
| the account that received the whole CULT issue | single-asset pool withdrawal (CULT only) | 6 | 1.81% | 1.98% | ×1.155 |
| flow-connected to Pheanor's activation tree | offer that traded with the pool | 37 | -1.19% | -1.31% | ×0.909 |
| Hodler's activation tree | single-asset pool deposit (XRP only) | 27 | 0.97% | 1.06% | ×1.080 |
| flow-connected to Hodler's activation tree | swap or payment through the pool | 955 | 0.79% | 0.87% | ×1.065 |
| flow-connected to Pheanor's activation tree | single-asset pool withdrawal (XRP only) | 17 | -0.62% | -0.67% | ×0.952 |
| flow-connected to Pheanor's activation tree | single-asset pool deposit (CULT only) | 5 | -0.38% | -0.41% | ×0.970 |
| flow-connected to both activation trees | single-asset pool withdrawal (XRP only) | 12 | -0.35% | -0.38% | ×0.973 |
| the account that received the whole CULT issue | single-asset pool deposit (CULT only) | 8 | -0.22% | -0.24% | ×0.982 |
| flow-connected to Hodler's activation tree | offer that traded with the pool | 12 | -0.22% | -0.24% | ×0.983 |
| the account that received the whole CULT issue | single-asset pool withdrawal (XRP only) | 3 | -0.21% | -0.23% | ×0.984 |
| flow-connected to Hodler's activation tree | single-asset pool deposit (CULT only) | 2 | -0.19% | -0.21% | ×0.985 |
| Pheanor's activation tree | offer that traded with the pool | 1 | -0.13% | -0.14% | ×0.990 |
| flow-connected to Hodler's activation tree | single-asset pool withdrawal (CULT only) | 7 | 0.09% | 0.10% | ×1.007 |
| the account that received the whole CULT issue | single-asset pool deposit (XRP only) | 8 | 0.05% | 0.06% | ×1.004 |
| Hodler's activation tree | offer that traded with the pool | 2 | -0.02% | -0.02% | ×0.998 |
| flow-connected to Hodler's activation tree | single-asset pool deposit (XRP only) | 1 | 0.00% | 0.00% | ×1.000 |
| Pheanor's activation tree | single-asset pool withdrawal (XRP only) | 1 | 0.00% | 0.00% | ×1.000 |
| Pheanor's activation tree | two-asset pool deposit | 622 | 0.00% | 0.00% | ×1.000 |
every row: download price-by-whose-and-kind.csv.
Table 3. Single-asset moves of CULT in the CULT/XRP pool — taking CULT alone out, which raises the price, and putting it alone in, which lowers it — from the named wallets alone, through each activation tree, to every scenario of which connected accounts are counted with them. An activation tree's “reached from it” rows add the accounts the token flow reaches from that activation tree, those reached from both activation trees included; each connection-profile row adds a band to the rows above it; each flow row counts every account flow-connected at that threshold. The net is what the two kinds of move multiplied to together.
| whose | withdrawals | CULT taken out | withdrawals multiplied the price by | deposits | CULT put in | deposits multiplied the price by | net: the price multiplied by | net share of the rise to the peak | net share of the whole move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pheanor's named wallets | 1,041 | 2,689.600182 | ×25.593 | 178 | 505.690000 | ×0.294 | ×7.527 | 26.63% | 27.73% |
| Hodler's named wallet | 84 | 523.192608 | ×1.526 | 8 | 69.090000 | ×0.892 | ×1.362 | 3.89% | 4.24% |
| both men's named wallets | 1,125 | 3,212.792790 | ×39.066 | 186 | 574.780000 | ×0.262 | ×10.252 | 30.52% | 31.97% |
| Pheanor's activation tree | 1,073 | 2,714.191546 | ×26.585 | 178 | 505.690000 | ×0.294 | ×7.819 | 27.11% | 28.25% |
| Hodler's activation tree | 119 | 716.895324 | ×1.678 | 12 | 106.090000 | ×0.863 | ×1.448 | 4.66% | 5.09% |
| both activation trees | 1,192 | 3,431.086871 | ×44.619 | 190 | 611.780000 | ×0.254 | ×11.324 | 31.77% | 33.34% |
| Pheanor's activation tree + reached from it at 50 CULT | 1,089 | 2,783.881597 | ×28.204 | 179 | 526.450760 | ×0.290 | ×8.184 | 27.68% | 28.87% |
| Hodler's activation tree + reached from it at 50 CULT | 443 | 3,033.392454 | ×6.835 | 32 | 398.199359 | ×0.684 | ×4.672 | 19.16% | 21.17% |
| Pheanor's activation tree + reached from it at 30 CULT | 1,092 | 2,797.024106 | ×28.540 | 180 | 527.450760 | ×0.290 | ×8.274 | 27.82% | 29.02% |
| Hodler's activation tree + reached from it at 30 CULT | 443 | 3,033.392454 | ×6.835 | 32 | 398.199359 | ×0.684 | ×4.672 | 19.16% | 21.17% |
| Pheanor's activation tree + reached from it at 10 CULT | 1,525 | 5,375.572471 | ×163.544 | 202 | 827.514639 | ×0.227 | ×37.183 | 46.49% | 49.67% |
| Hodler's activation tree + reached from it at 10 CULT | 478 | 3,142.676462 | ×7.885 | 33 | 407.699359 | ×0.677 | ×5.340 | 20.84% | 23.01% |
| both activation trees + strong connection profiles | 1,311 | 3,742.180787 | ×61.067 | 194 | 640.780000 | ×0.247 | ×15.091 | 35.38% | 37.28% |
| both activation trees + token flow only connection profiles | 1,616 | 6,057.060869 | ×257.875 | 216 | 940.161779 | ×0.195 | ×50.301 | 50.29% | 53.82% |
| both activation trees + token flow on one payment connection profiles | 1,654 | 6,161.814189 | ×285.300 | 217 | 949.661779 | ×0.193 | ×55.143 | 51.45% | 55.08% |
| both activation trees + one other kind only connection profiles | 1,662 | 6,168.205671 | ×288.834 | 220 | 952.651895 | ×0.193 | ×55.605 | 51.55% | 55.19% |
| both activation trees + flow-connected at 50 CULT | 1,532 | 5,817.274052 | ×192.770 | 211 | 924.650119 | ×0.198 | ×38.232 | 46.84% | 50.05% |
| both activation trees + flow-connected at 30 CULT | 1,535 | 5,830.416561 | ×195.063 | 212 | 925.650119 | ×0.198 | ×38.652 | 46.98% | 50.20% |
| both activation trees + flow-connected at 10 CULT | 1,651 | 6,104.548932 | ×276.415 | 216 | 949.604639 | ×0.193 | ×53.428 | 51.05% | 54.64% |
every row: download single-asset-scenarios.csv.
Table 4. What the activation trees' CULT would fetch sold into the pool now, by the network's own formula with its 1.0% fee — each row on its own, as if nobody else sold first.
| group | CULT | marked at the pool price (XRP) | the pool would pay (XRP) | share of the mark |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pheanor's activation tree | 2,054.247521 | 306,068.80 | 52,691.48 | 17.22% |
| Hodler's activation tree | 553.479992 | 82,464.73 | 35,807.59 | 43.42% |
| both activation trees | 2,607.727513 | 388,533.53 | 54,710.77 | 14.08% |
every row: download trees-would-fetch.csv.
The OBEY/XRP pool
The pool opened at 6.9000 XRP per OBEY, peaked at 32,842.2531 on 2024-11-16 13:42:10 UTC (×4,759.747), and stands at 2,860.6916 now (×0.087 since the peak).
Table 5. Whose transactions moved the OBEY/XRP pool's price, in each stretch.
| whose transactions | share of the rise to the peak | multiplied it by | share of the fall since the peak | multiplied it by | share of the whole life | multiplied it by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| everyone else | 59.09% | ×148.937 | 110.89% | ×0.067 | 38.11% | ×9.946 |
| Hodler's activation tree | 22.34% | ×6.631 | 36.51% | ×0.410 | 16.60% | ×2.720 |
| flow-connected to both activation trees | 18.10% | ×4.631 | 88.39% | ×0.116 | -10.36% | ×0.535 |
| Pheanor's activation tree | 0.47% | ×1.041 | -104.44% | ×12.794 | 42.95% | ×13.314 |
| flow-connected to Hodler's activation tree | 0.00% | ×1.000 | 0.00% | ×1.000 | 0.00% | ×1.000 |
| flow-connected to Pheanor's activation tree | 0.00% | ×1.000 | -31.36% | ×2.150 | 12.70% | ×2.150 |
| all transactions | 100.00% | ×4,759.747 | 100.00% | ×0.087 | 100.00% | ×414.593 |
every row: download obey-price-by-whose.csv.
Table 6. How the activation trees, the flow-connected accounts and the accounts that received an issue moved the OBEY/XRP pool's price, by kind of transaction.
| whose | kind of transaction | transactions | share of the rise to the peak | share of the whole life | multiplied the price by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| flow-connected to both activation trees | swap or payment through the pool | 280 | 0.33% | -67.48% | ×0.017 |
| flow-connected to both activation trees | single-asset pool deposit (XRP only) | 144 | 13.47% | 29.57% | ×5.942 |
| flow-connected to both activation trees | single-asset pool withdrawal (OBEY only) | 42 | 4.49% | 28.24% | ×5.486 |
| Pheanor's activation tree | single-asset pool withdrawal (OBEY only) | 92 | 0.00% | 26.22% | ×4.858 |
| Hodler's activation tree | single-asset pool withdrawal (OBEY only) | 33 | 6.19% | 14.19% | ×2.352 |
| Hodler's activation tree | single-asset pool deposit (XRP only) | 49 | 8.03% | 13.92% | ×2.315 |
| flow-connected to Pheanor's activation tree | swap or payment through the pool | 412 | 0.00% | 11.41% | ×1.989 |
| Hodler's activation tree | swap or payment through the pool | 162 | 8.14% | -10.57% | ×0.529 |
| Pheanor's activation tree | swap or payment through the pool | 449 | 0.00% | 9.95% | ×1.821 |
| Pheanor's activation tree | single-asset pool deposit (XRP only) | 112 | 0.47% | 7.91% | ×1.611 |
| flow-connected to Pheanor's activation tree | single-asset pool deposit (XRP only) | 57 | 0.00% | 5.12% | ×1.362 |
| flow-connected to Pheanor's activation tree | single-asset pool deposit (OBEY only) | 3 | 0.00% | -2.91% | ×0.839 |
| flow-connected to Pheanor's activation tree | single-asset pool withdrawal (OBEY only) | 22 | 0.00% | 2.64% | ×1.172 |
| flow-connected to Pheanor's activation tree | offer that traded with the pool | 17 | 0.00% | -2.45% | ×0.863 |
| flow-connected to Pheanor's activation tree | single-asset pool withdrawal (XRP only) | 9 | 0.00% | -1.11% | ×0.935 |
| Pheanor's activation tree | single-asset pool deposit (OBEY only) | 3 | 0.00% | -0.94% | ×0.945 |
| Hodler's activation tree | single-asset pool deposit (OBEY only) | 3 | 0.00% | -0.91% | ×0.946 |
| flow-connected to both activation trees | single-asset pool withdrawal (XRP only) | 5 | 0.00% | -0.47% | ×0.972 |
| flow-connected to both activation trees | single-asset pool deposit (OBEY only) | 3 | -0.18% | -0.27% | ×0.984 |
| Pheanor's activation tree | single-asset pool withdrawal (XRP only) | 1 | 0.00% | -0.19% | ×0.988 |
| flow-connected to both activation trees | offer that traded with the pool | 5 | 0.00% | 0.06% | ×1.003 |
| Hodler's activation tree | offer that traded with the pool | 1 | -0.02% | -0.03% | ×0.998 |
| flow-connected to Hodler's activation tree | swap or payment through the pool | 11 | 0.00% | 0.00% | ×1.000 |
| flow-connected to Pheanor's activation tree | two-asset pool deposit | 160 | 0.00% | 0.00% | ×1.000 |
| Pheanor's activation tree | two-asset pool deposit | 128 | 0.00% | 0.00% | ×1.000 |
| flow-connected to both activation trees | two-asset pool withdrawal | 24 | 0.00% | 0.00% | ×1.000 |
| Pheanor's activation tree | two-asset pool withdrawal | 23 | 0.00% | 0.00% | ×1.000 |
every row: download obey-price-by-whose-and-kind.csv.
Table 7. Single-asset moves of OBEY in the OBEY/XRP pool — taking OBEY alone out, which raises the price, and putting it alone in, which lowers it — from the named wallets alone, through each activation tree, to every scenario of which connected accounts are counted with them. An activation tree's “reached from it” rows add the accounts the token flow reaches from that activation tree, those reached from both activation trees included; each connection-profile row adds a band to the rows above it; each flow row counts every account flow-connected at that threshold. The net is what the two kinds of move multiplied to together.
| whose | withdrawals | OBEY taken out | withdrawals multiplied the price by | deposits | OBEY put in | deposits multiplied the price by | net: the price multiplied by | net share of the rise to the peak | net share of the whole move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pheanor's named wallets | 92 | 2.840724 | ×4.858 | 3 | 0.082880 | ×0.945 | ×4.591 | 0.00% | 25.29% |
| Hodler's named wallet | 21 | 0.239805 | ×1.786 | 3 | 0.100000 | ×0.946 | ×1.690 | 5.67% | 8.71% |
| both men's named wallets | 113 | 3.080529 | ×8.675 | 6 | 0.182880 | ×0.894 | ×7.759 | 5.67% | 33.99% |
| Pheanor's activation tree | 92 | 2.840724 | ×4.858 | 3 | 0.082880 | ×0.945 | ×4.591 | 0.00% | 25.29% |
| Hodler's activation tree | 33 | 0.328615 | ×2.352 | 3 | 0.100000 | ×0.946 | ×2.226 | 6.19% | 13.28% |
| both activation trees | 125 | 3.169339 | ×11.426 | 6 | 0.182880 | ×0.894 | ×10.219 | 6.19% | 38.56% |
| Pheanor's activation tree + reached from it at 50 CULT | 92 | 2.840724 | ×4.858 | 3 | 0.082880 | ×0.945 | ×4.591 | 0.00% | 25.29% |
| Hodler's activation tree + reached from it at 50 CULT | 75 | 1.138431 | ×12.902 | 6 | 0.106660 | ×0.931 | ×12.014 | 10.50% | 41.25% |
| Pheanor's activation tree + reached from it at 30 CULT | 92 | 2.840724 | ×4.858 | 5 | 0.092880 | ×0.940 | ×4.567 | 0.00% | 25.20% |
| Hodler's activation tree + reached from it at 30 CULT | 75 | 1.138431 | ×12.902 | 6 | 0.106660 | ×0.931 | ×12.014 | 10.50% | 41.25% |
| Pheanor's activation tree + reached from it at 10 CULT | 156 | 3.998648 | ×31.246 | 9 | 0.367700 | ×0.780 | ×24.375 | 4.31% | 52.98% |
| Hodler's activation tree + reached from it at 10 CULT | 75 | 1.138431 | ×12.902 | 6 | 0.106660 | ×0.931 | ×12.014 | 10.50% | 41.25% |
| both activation trees + strong connection profiles | 130 | 3.252208 | ×12.013 | 7 | 0.451040 | ×0.754 | ×9.062 | 6.19% | 36.57% |
| both activation trees + token flow only connection profiles | 187 | 4.089498 | ×67.494 | 12 | 0.467700 | ×0.738 | ×49.832 | 10.50% | 64.85% |
| both activation trees + token flow on one payment connection profiles | 192 | 4.343150 | ×74.135 | 12 | 0.467700 | ×0.738 | ×54.735 | 10.50% | 66.41% |
| both activation trees + one other kind only connection profiles | 192 | 4.343150 | ×74.135 | 13 | 0.469815 | ×0.737 | ×54.674 | 10.50% | 66.39% |
| both activation trees + flow-connected at 50 CULT | 167 | 3.979155 | ×62.679 | 9 | 0.189540 | ×0.880 | ×55.151 | 10.50% | 66.53% |
| both activation trees + flow-connected at 30 CULT | 167 | 3.979155 | ×62.679 | 11 | 0.199540 | ×0.875 | ×54.867 | 10.50% | 66.45% |
| both activation trees + flow-connected at 10 CULT | 189 | 4.327263 | ×73.489 | 12 | 0.467700 | ×0.738 | ×54.258 | 10.50% | 66.26% |
every row: download obey-single-asset-scenarios.csv.
Table 8. What the activation trees' OBEY would fetch sold into the pool now, by the network's own formula with its 1.0% fee — each row on its own, as if nobody else sold first.
| group | OBEY | marked at the pool price (XRP) | the pool would pay (XRP) | share of the mark |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pheanor's activation tree | 0.963941 | 2,757.54 | 1,878.67 | 68.13% |
| Hodler's activation tree | 0.000000472636 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 99.00% |
| both activation trees | 0.963941 | 2,757.54 | 1,878.68 | 68.13% |
every row: download obey-trees-would-fetch.csv.
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